The first real talks aimed at reaching a settlement in Zimbabwe began in Pretoria this past week.
The timetable was revealed during a court hearing for Tendai Biti, the Movement for Democratic Change’s secretary general who has been charged with treason. State prosecutors said they had been informed that ”the talks are going to be held from July 9 to 13” and that they were ”amenable to have the applicant’s bail conditions suspended from July 9 to 15”.
On Wednesday the court ordered that Biti’s passport be returned to him so that he could travel to South Africa for the talks.
It is still unclear whether MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai will attend. What is clear is that there is no agreement among MDC leadership about how to approach the talks — or whether they should talk to Robert Mugabe at all. In truth, however, they have no real option.
Neither Mugabe nor Tsvangirai can rule successfully without coming to some sort of agreement. Tsvangirai has a one-seat advantage over Mugabe in the lower house of parliament, with the balance of power held by Arthur Mutambara’s faction of the MDC.
A meeting of the MDC executive has backed dialogue, but there is robust internal debate about what the party can hope to get out of an increasingly intransigent Mugabe.
Mugabe is expected to name his Cabinet in the next few days, and one of his top officials has again raised the prospect that MDC figures could be included as part of a settlement.
Foreign Minister Simbarashe Mumbengegwi said Mugabe could form ”an all-inclusive government” in which all political parties participate.
Should Tsvangirai be offered a role as prime minister, as has been widely suggested, both parties would have to agree on amendments to the Constitution.
The MDC is aware that such a deal would be likely to anger supporters and civil society allies who have opposed piecemeal Constitutional amendments in the past and backed the MDC on the condition that it presses for a new constitution.
Meanwhile, a source close to the talks said it was difficult to envisage an arrangement in which Mugabe would accept a role as a titular president.
Critics question just how far the 84-year-old leader is willing to go.
”I agree it will be a difficult process but we are already in transition, which is why Mugabe has agreed to come to the negotiating table. Whether Mugabe likes it or not, power is already finding a new centre,” said John Makumbe, a lecturer in political science at the University of Zimbabwe.
Negotiations over Cabinet portfolios are expected to be protracted; Mugabe is unlikely to hand over control of key ministries, while the MDC is unlikely to be content with the more peripheral ones.
Analysts said the MDC should demand that it shares powerful ministries so as to be able to drive effective change. Out of the four key security ministries — home affairs, defence, state security and justice — the opposition should demand two and push for an equal split among the remaining ministries.
But splitting ministries will not necessarily make a government of national unity a workable compromise. Such a government should be based on a reform agenda if it is to be viable, analysts said.
”The real issue is about reforming all state institutions, especially the security sector where professional ethics need to be reinstituted,” said Eldred Masunungure, senior lecturer in political science at the University of Zimbabwe.
There is likely to be significant resistance to reform, especially among military hardliners such as Zimbabwe Defence Forces commander General Constantine Chiwenga and entrenched bureaucrats such as Reserve Bank governor Gideon Gono.
Critics of the proposed government of national unity question whether an opposition minister can be put in charge of the police or army, whose commanders have declared their allegiance to Mugabe and Zanu-PF.
But analysts believe that even the security commanders realise they do not hold all the aces and will that they will have to play ball if the MDC pushes harder.
Key ministries
Defence
It is unlikely Robert Mugabe will hand control of the military to the Movement for Democratic Change. It has been the cornerstone of his brutal campaign to retain power and it was the hard-line top brass who rallied in support of Mugabe in the aftermath of his March 29 electoral defeat.
If the MDC won control of defence, however, Morgan Tsvangirai would most likely nominate defence secretary Tichaona Mudzingwa, a war veteran, in an attempt to placate top military figures.
State Security
Like the army, Mugabe’s much-feared intelligence organisation has been accused of planning and executing the murders of about 100 MDC supporters since March.
Senior intelligence figures would be concerned about their own safety should this ministry fall to the MDC.
Here Tsvangirai’s most probable nominee could make such an arrangement improbable. Giles Mutsekwa, his intelligence and security secretary, was a senior officer in Ian Smith’s Rhodesian Forces. A military dominated by war veterans would reject him outright.
Home affairs
Home affairs is the parent ministry of the Zimbabwe Republic Police and has historically has been in the hands of the opposition. At independence this portfolio was held by former Zapu leader Joshua Nkomo. It is headed by Kembo Mohadi, also formerly of Zapu.
Mugabe has been comfortable in handing this portfolio to his opponents as he is able to maintain control of the police by appointing his acolytes to the police commissioner post. The current police commissioner of more than 15 years is Augustine Chihuri. Even if the MDC is given this portfolio it will be of no effect as long as Chihuri and his war veteran subordinates hold office.
Finance
Mugabe long ago handed this ministry to central bank governor Gideon Gono, who wields more power than the Treasury.
A row with former finance minister Herbert Murerwa over Gono’s unbudgeted spending led to the minister’s departure from government a year ago. Murerwa had publicly blamed Gono’s ”quasi-fiscal spending” for fuelling inflation.
Gono printed money to import farm implements, which Mugabe used to buy votes from restive rural supporters. Mugabe would not want Gono’s influence diluted by an MDC appointee to this ministry. An economist based in Zimbabwe described the finance ministry as ”useless” and said as long as Gono remains governor his role will not be reduced to that of a central bank chief.
The MDC will probably nominate Tendai Biti, a lawyer and the MDC’s secretary general, who is the party’s secretary for economic affairs and its shadow finance minister.
Information
The information ministry is not a fully-fledged portfolio and has been housed in the presidency since 2000. After the narrow election victory that year Mugabe decided to take a more hands-on approach to managing the flow of information, and attached the portfolio to his offices.
Information was headed by Jonathan Moyo until he fell out of favour with Mugabe in 2005. Moyo spearheaded the Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act, which resulted in the closure of the Daily News and other privately owned papers.
If the MDC were to get this portfolio it would have to be reconfigured into a separate ministry as it is useless in its present form.
Foreign Affairs
The minister of foreign affairs, Simbarashe Mumbengegwi, is little more than a figurehead, as Mugabe is very involved in the country’s foreign affairs, which in the past decade, have mostly involved berating former British prime minister Tony Blair and his successor, Gordon Brown. Zanu-PF’s view of the international community is different from that of the MDC and the two parties’ worldviews are certain to collide, making for an interesting drama.
If the MDC manages to garner this portfolio it is likely to increase its influence significantly. It will also allow the MDC to make a significant impact on Zimbabwe’s image in the rest of the world.
*Edith Kaseke is a correspondent for ZimOnline