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News | Africa | Southern Africa

Zim inflation zips to new daily highs

CHRIS MCGREAL - Jul 19 2008 06:00
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Zimbabwe's official inflation rate has escalated to 2,2-million percent, driving the cost of a loaf of bread to about one-third of a teacher's monthly salary.

But independent economists swiftly dismissed the government's latest figure, saying the true rate was several times higher and rising faster than ever.

On Wednesday the central bank governor, Gideon Gono, announced a thirteenfold increase in the last official inflation figure, announced in February, when it was put at about 165 000%. Officials admit that the figure is only an estimate because it is now all but impossible to track the cost of individual goods.

One of Zimbabwe's most respected economists, John Robertson, said that while inflation was probably about two-million percent in May, it soared again last month.

"I think the June figure is more likely to be 10-million percent and it could turn out to be 15-million percent," he said.

Salaries have failed to keep pace with daily price increases, so even those with jobs in a country with 80% unemployment are often unable to afford the bus fare to work or more than one meal a day for their families.

Huge queues form outside any bakery selling price-controlled bread, but demand far outstrips supply.

Robertson said inflation was largely being driven by the collapse in the black-market value of the Zimbabwe dollar against the United States dollar, which sets the pricing for imports of foods and other goods.

"At the beginning of July the exchange rate was 27-million percent higher than the same time last year. That becomes the floor for the July calculation. I think we're heading for 40 or 50-million percent inflation by the end of July," he said.

CONTINUES BELOW


Eight weeks ago the central bank issued a Z$50-billion note, the largest available. At the time it was worth about R30; it is now worth about R2,70.

Last year the government tried to curb inflation with price controls that forced shops to slash their prices by up to 80%. But that only led to a short-lived spending spree when people bought up food, electrical goods and furniture at a fraction of their real value.

Since then the shelves of many shops and supermarkets have been largely bare except when the owners are prepared to risk being caught charging prices that reflect the cost of importing goods from South Africa now that Zimbabwe's own production has largely collapsed.

Hyperinflation has caused a cash shortage because the government cannot print notes fast enough to meet demand. Ordinary people are permitted to draw only Z$100-billion (about R5,40) a day from the banks.

However, the government has made an exception for soldiers, fearing unrest in the military. They are allowed to take out Z$1,5-trillion a day (about R57) and the cash is delivered by the banks to the barracks.

While the parallel rate for the American dollar is Z$270-billion, the official exchange rate remains at Z$30 000. Only a select few at the top of the regime have access to foreign currency at that rate.

It has enabled some of them to buy luxury cars for no more than a few pounds through currency manipulation. -- ©Guardian News & Media Ltd 2008
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It's a shambles. But it's all too predictable.
Jon Low on July 19, 2008, 11:02 am
Amazing! This must be a record first in the economic history of the world. What Mugabe's supporters don't understand is that this is not as a direct or even indirect result of sanctions currently in place as they only target a handful of ZAPU-PF elite and have not stopped Zimbabwe from trading as none of it's neighbours have closed borders or prevented ZANU-PF from sourcing goods indirectly through 3rd parties. The Smith & apartheid regimes outfoxed sanctions far more odious than these for decades and ZANU-PF could easily do the same if the sanctions where the only problem.

Rather this world record inflation rate is a resounding vote of no confidence in the policies of ZANU-PF by any and everyone handing the Zimbabwe dollar. The people of Zimbabwe are the primary decision makers when it comes to the true value of the Zim dollar as they accept or reject rates of exchange or the true value of goods.

While governments can seek to influence inflation it is the marketplace that is the real deciding force and the truth is that everyone from street traders to ZANU-PF's inner circle knows deep down that Mugabe's policies are unsustainable and will shortly leave Zimbabwes economy a mangled wreck at the side of the economic highway.

All Mugabe has going for him now is the amazing capacity of African's to stick it out with a leader who's clearly lost the plot simply out of respect for his past achievements and seniority. But how long will the remaining 20% of the population who are still working stick with him as their salaries fade to pathetic nothingness?
Cliff Smith on July 19, 2008, 4:15 pm
When i left Zimbabwe in 1983, my remitment Zimbabwean pension was $Z396 per month. I was quite happy then because one Zim dollar was worth R1.50c. In February 2002, my monthly pension had climbed to $Z17.000 and i was receiving a monthly cheque of about R2000. The following month Mugabe cancelled all Zimbabwe pensions of those people that lived outside Zimbabwe. This was in retaliation because of targeted sanctions against him and his cronies. We were told to go to Blair for our pensions. The SA government would not interfere on our behalf even though many ex Zimbabweans had overnight become destitute and now qualified to receive SA government pensions. Obviously our stolen pensions would be worth absolutely nothing today.
There is however a lesson to be learnt here and something i drum into my three sons. 'Never ever have all your money in one country'. I paid into a pension fund in Zimbabwe for 27 years only to see it stolen by crooks. The South African government refused to help me retrieve the rights of my pension by appealing to the Zimbabwean government. It has lost my trust and as i tell my sons. what is to stop it from following the same route as Zimbabwe, in respect of ones pension?



Frank Hartry on July 19, 2008, 9:22 pm
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