/ 1 September 2008

Keep an eye on small fry

The most significant results of next week's Angolan elections could be at the bottom of the table.

Have no doubt. Only one party can win Angola’s parliamentary elections next Friday and that is the MPLA, the party of government since independence in 1975. More difficult to predict is whether or not it will win an absolute majority and, even harder, how the remainder of the vote will split.

Beyond the MPLA’s former civil-war enemy Unita, the Angolan opposition tends to be ignored as small parties only in the game for money and prestige. For some this is true, but significant changes have occurred since the country’s only previous multiparty elections in 1992. There could be some major shifts among the minor parties this time.

Historically the third force in Angola, the FNLA today is in tatters. It’s tempting to put this down to the death of its founder, Holden Roberto, in 2007. But the FNLA’s weakness grew out of Roberto’s refusal to give up power. In 1998 the party suffered when Lucas Ngonda, who was widely believed to be in the pocket of the MPLA, formed a breakaway faction called FNLA Renovada. The irony is that the Constitutional Court ruled against Ngonda’s faction in July, leaving a fractured FNLA to contest elections under N’Gola Kabango. He is something of an elder statesman, but what could make him problematic for FNLA supporters is that he is not of Bakongo ethnicity but an Mbundu.

The FNLA’s failure could benefit other parties, especially those which also rely on the Bakongo and northern vote. PDP-Ana is the obvious alternative, but it also enters these elections much weaker than it was in 1992: it has never recovered from the death of its leader, Mfulumpinga Nlandu Victor, who was murdered outside the party’s offices in 2004. His replacement, Daniel Sediangani Mbimbi, is a decent man but severely lacks the charisma and courage of his predecessor.

Another contender that draws on a specific regional and ethnic vote is the PRS. It impressed in 1992, winning six seats thanks to heavy support in the diamond-rich Lunda Norte and Lunda Sul provinces — ”the Lundas” — where it campaigned on a federalist ticket. However, the PRS may lose seats this time round because of a leadership split that has seen two of its best members go elsewhere. Lindo Bernardo Tito has thrown his weight behind Pajoca, and João Mauchicungo has joined one of the four alliances contesting power next Friday, AD-Coligação. This leaves Eduardo Kuangana at the helm but written off by too many as yet another MPLA sell-out.

Unita believes it will benefit from the PRS’s loss of credibility, but the MPLA is taking nothing for granted: in May, President José Eduardo dos Santos appointed a new governor in Lunda Norte, Ernesto Muangala, who has been working round the clock to boost his party’s image.

Where there is real hope for change is Luanda: two parties to watch here are Pajoca and the FpD. Pajoca benefits from prominent members including David Mendes, a feisty lawyer who has gained publicity defending the rights of poor communities. Thanks to the very vocal human rights organisation he heads, Mãos Livres (Free Hands), Mendes has access to local networks across the capital’s sprawling townships and slums, where there is huge discontent with the MPLA.

Just one ”but”: during the 1992 presidential elections Pajoca supported the incumbent, Dos Santos, so critics allege that the party is still in the MPLA’s pocket. Mendes himself has struggled to shake off his past as a member of the intelligence services despite his overt opposition to the ruling party today.

Meanwhile, the Luanda rumour mill has it that the FpD will be the real surprise next Friday and will emerge as the third party after Unita. Led by a group of academics and lawyers from the Luanda social elite, the FpD is not short of ideas or incisive critiques of the state of the nation. It won a trump card earlier this year when the outspoken economist, Justino Pinto de Andrade, finally shelved his MPLA history and joined the FpD.

So educated, urban and sophisticated, however, the FpD leadership is a far reach from the vastly illiterate and poor Angolan masses.

One of the biggest hopes for September 5 was Padepa. The party gained wide respect from the late 1990s for its hands-on approach to politics. Risking beatings and detentions, Padepa’s leaders led brave demonstrations on anything from the war and corruption to the price of bread. So it was a great disappointment when they fell prey to personality disputes and, like so many others, split.

Squeezed out by the Constitutional Court, Carlos Leitão, Padepa’s former president, has jumped in with Unita, which certainly won’t hurt the country’s biggest opposition party. But Unita may well be wondering whether it will have 70 seats after Friday: for the MPLA strategy, to conquer Unita’s traditional strongholds in the central highlands, might just pay off.

Election facts and parties
On September 5, 8,3-million Angolans are eligible to vote by proportional representation for 5 198 candidates for 223 deputies’ seats with four-year terms in the National Assembly. Presidential elections due next year.

MPLA (Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola)
Won 129 seats in 1992 election (54,7% vote).

Support base: Mbundu people, educated urban elite including mulatto and white voters; coastal areas including Luanda and central-western and north-western areas including Malanje.

Unita (National Union for the Total Independence of Angola)
70 seats in 1992 (34,1% vote).
In late 1990s some senior members formed a now defunct breakaway faction, Unita Renovada. One came out in support of the MPLA this month.

Support base: Ovimbundo people, the central highland areas of Huambo and Bié, and parts of the south and east of the country.

FNLA (National Front for the Liberation of Angola)
Won five seats but just 2,4% of the vote in 1992 — about the same as far smaller and less established parties like the PLD and the PRS.

Weaked by 1998 split.
Support base: north, Bakongo. Many Bakongo in Luanda were killed after the collapse of the 1992 elections and return to war.

PRS (Social Renewal Party)
Six seats in 1992 (2,27% vote).
Split in 1999: one faction leader has now joined AD-Coligação. Another PRS deputy has also left to join Pajoca.

Support base in the diamond-rich ”Lundas” provinces, from the Tchokwé ethnic group.
PLD (Liberal Democratic Party)
Three seats in 1992 (2,4% vote).
Lost a deputy to Pajoca this year.
Support base: largely educated and urban.

FpD (Front for Democracy)
Won one seat in 1992 as part of AD-Coligação.
Support base: urban, educated voters on the socialist left.

PDP-Ana (Democratic Progress Party-Angolan National Alliance)
One seat in 1992 (0,27% vote).
Support base: north, Bakongo.

Pajoca (Party of the Alliance of Youth, Workers and Peasants of Angola)
One seat in 1992 (0,35% vote).
Two deputies from the PLD and PRS have joined Pajoca this year.

Padepa (Angolan Party for Democratic Support and Progress)
Split this year.
Support base: Luanda slums.

PRD (Democratic Renewal Party)
One seat in 1992.
A single-issue party concerned with a 1977 uprising and purge.

Coalitions:
AD-Coligação (Angola Democratic Alliance)
One seat in 1992.
Fofac (Angolan Fraternal Forum Coalition)
ND (New Democracy Coalition)
PPE (Electoral Political Platform)

These four alliances consist of small parties or factions resulting from tension within larger parties.

Lara Pawson is a Writing Fellow at Wiser, the Wits Institute for Social and Economic Research