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Opinion | Comment & Analysis

Mbeki: Alone in his hour of need

AZUBUIKE ISHIEKWENE: COMMENT - Oct 27 2008 06:00
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There is a Nigerian saying that no misfortune can be worse than falling on hard times at the same time as one's friends or allies.

Then one would be truly on one's own, with nowhere to turn and no one to look to for help. Former president Thabo Mbeki had many influential Nigerian friends and was, for the better part of his presidency, the champion of an African renaissance and values-based leadership.

Yet, in one of the bitter ironies of power, the resounding silence in Africa's most populous nation last month, when Mbeki was removed, was typical of the response throughout much of the continent.

Not that Nigeria -- or any other African country for that matter -- could have saved Mbeki. But there are many who believe that had the events of last month occurred when Olusegun Obasanjo was still in power, Abuja's attitude towards Pretoria would have, at minimum, been one of restrained displeasure.

But there's a new king on the throne who doesn't know Mbeki and who shares no special bonds with him. The mood in Abuja now is one of callous indifference.

It is a sign of the state of things between Abuja and Pretoria that perhaps two of the most influential political figures on the continent only 24 months ago are now fighting for their political lives: Obasanjo is fighting to clear his name from allegations of fraud during his eight-year rule and Mbeki is deeply wounded. Both men go back a long way.

Mbeki first arrived in Nigeria in 1977 as the ANC's representative to the country after he was deported from Swaziland. Nigeria's military head of state, General Murtala Muhammed, had just been murdered in a failed coup and it was the lot of Obasanjo, his reluctant successor, to lead the country through a chaotic phase that combined the gluttony of oil wealth with the ribaldry of the continent's first festival of African arts and culture. Lagos became Mbeki's home away from home. He cultivated the inner circles of power and the relationship he built at the time not only gave the ANC a solid base, but it would become serviceable many years later when Mbeki and Obasanjo met again as presidents of their respective countries.

Business between Nigeria and South Africa may be booming -- grossing an average R4-billion every year -- but judging by press clips, the same can hardly be said for politics. At the height of Mbeki's travails and shortly after his fall, the sentiment was not so much about the special relationship he had helped to nurture with Nigeria, or about the humiliation he had suffered at the hands of the party that he had served so faithfully for 52 years. Of course there were people such as Olugbenga Ashiru, the former high commissioner to Pretoria, who said in an article that Mbeki played a key role in ensuring that Nigeria's last general elections were held on schedule. But this flitting compliment was a departure from the general tone, which was: what lessons can Nigerian politicians learn from the fall of Mbeki?

The overriding lesson, it seems, was that even though Mbeki spent 14 years in Nigeria, he is far less Nigerian than his rival, Jacob Zuma. In Nigerian politics, a deputy -- any deputy -- is famously called a "spare tyre", it would be unthinkable for a deputy to overthrow his boss. In his column in The Guardian, Reuben Abati wrote that a Nigerian first lady would have taken the initiative. Mrs Mbeki and Mrs Zuma would have slugged it out in public before their husbands started the hot war.

CONTINUES BELOW


"The meeting of the ANC national executive committee, in which the decision to recall Mbeki was taken," Abati wrote: "would definitely have ended in chaos.

"First an attempt would have been made to bribe the members with oil and gas contracts, mining contracts and offers of position in government … Mbeki's resignation would have generated serious tension between Zulus and Xhosas …"

Another columnist, the editor of ThisDay on Sunday, Yusuph Olaniyonu, said that if Mbeki had been a Nigerian politician he would have used all the tricks in the book to hang on to power. But Nigeria is only a mirror of the "real Africa" that Mbeki spoke about in Mark Gevisser's book, Thabo Mbeki: The Dream Deferred. This is a continent where infinite possibilities wrestle with incredible frustrations and contradictions.

At the risk of blowing against the wind, Mbeki was the first African leader to endorse the administration of President Umaru Yar'Adua. So why is Mbeki alone in his own hour of need? In official-speak the change in South Africa's leadership is strictly an internal matter. Nearer the truth is that the Nigerian president is too busy fighting his own health and legitimacy issues to care about what is happening elsewhere. Even when the crisis in Zimbabwe brought Abuja and Johannesburg face to face, Yar'Adua choose a different, tougher route than Mbeki's.

Yet it would be a mistake to regard this aloofness as an unqualified endorsement of Zuma. In an editorial in Punch the newspaper called for a healing of the wounds to save the party and the country, while Abati quipped that Zuma would soon find that running a country is not the same thing as dancing the toyi-toyi or having a sweet revenge. It's a lonely road for Mbeki, but a rough one ahead for South Africa.

Azubuike Ishiekwene is executive editor of Punch in Nigeria. He writes a monthly column for the Mail & Guardian
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Please, spare us the melo-dramatic headline! Mr. Mbeki was the architect of his own downfall. The only regret we need have is about the WAY in which he was removed from office. It should have been done in accordance with the Constitution either by a Parliamentary vote of non-confidence or by Impeachment not by a coup that called itself a 'recall'.
on October 27, 2008, 12:58 pm
"At the risk of blowing against the wind, Mbeki was the first African leader to endorse the administration of President Umaru Yar'Adua."

Okay that we understand (he always endorses dictators & manipulators of countries' genuine voters), he did that several times in Zimbabwe and Kibaki’s election results massaging was also welcomed.

Then tell us, where he stood firm and opposed the unfairness, illegitimacy and rigging of votes?

Tell us one country where Mbeki denounced nonsensical deeds of a dictator…


on October 27, 2008, 6:39 pm
I'm just an average Josephine, but I've found it really interesting to note how South African politics has been focused in the recent past on, not so much the disadvantaged and how to alleviate their ongoing Struggle as it has on the our privileged politicians like mr Mbeki, who still have their money and their homes no matter what happens. I feel like the girl in that shampoo ad "What about Brazilian?"...""the poor?...what about the poor..?" But who's listening?
split mak on October 27, 2008, 10:35 pm
This is an intersting comment about President Mbeki. It is also interesting that the author wants to hear the views of other leaders in the continent. Truth be told, diplomacy and respect for other states and nations dictates that leaders of other countries within the continent respect the decisions taken by the ANC on recalling Mbeki. Privately, they may feel otherwise.

I believe that even if President Obasanjo was still the President, he would have kept quiet and perhaps privately called President Mbeki to get his perspective and really have aprivate conversation that would not be public.

Is Mbeki alone in his our of need really? Anyone who thiinks that including political perssimist who have commented on this article (those who always ask, what is it for me type)will be dissapointed to learn that President Mbeki is not alone in this hour, it is not even an hour of need, it is just another huddle that we must overcome has we forged forward with the national democratic struggle.

Our is a struggle that not not aimed at short term gains, the conduct of our struggle was such, its outcomes will be such and in the long road, many contours and cul de sacs will have to be negotiated and breakthroughs made. In such cases, drawbacks are expected as sometimes any vehicle must reverse. So, as we forge forward, we will be forced to reverse, President Mbeki knows that and he had expected it to happen although none of us had thought that the reversal will be so early in our democracy as we try to push back the contours of illetracy and poverty and bring a society that is litterate and have basic needs.

That is the altimate aim of the revolution, is to bring food and shelter over the heads of many children and adults. That in the present conjecture when we are heading for reccession could only be realistic if we defeat the gridiness of capaital and capitalists.
Mhlayifani Pati on October 30, 2008, 11:45 pm
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