/ 8 December 2008

How to break the Zimbabwe impasse

Protracted efforts by SADC and led by former president Thabo Mbeki have consistently failed to bring the crisis to a reasonable solution, despite more than 18 months of negotiations. Reasons for the failure of these negotiations are as follows:

  • It was focused on personalities and positions rather than on aims, objectives, institutions and processes.
  • Attempts to hammer out an agreement on shared principles led to very vague and generalised statements, lacking in specific details.
  • Mbeki was seen as favouring Zanu-PF, and therefore was distrusted by MDC-T (Morgan Tsvangirai). He is not seen as non-partisan.
  • Key decision-makers did not participate and, as far as we know, were not even consulted. Even members of the main parties appear to be ignorant of what was taking place throughout the negotiations.
  • Both Zanu-PF and MDC-T are wracked by internal divisions and attempts to paper over these divisions have led to further destabilisation of the process.
  • MDC and other opponents of Mugabe and Zanu-PF believe they have nothing to lose by allowing a continuation of the present situation. They consider that Zanu-PF’s strategy of using torture, violence and killings cannot lead to long-term popular political support. They also consider that the serious economic deterioration will destroy Zanu-PF’s credibility and popular support, and the longer it lasts the better for the opposition.
  • Outside funding for the opposition also makes it unnecessary for them to come to a quick compromise: in terms of personal wealth and status, they may fare better as opposition than as government.
  • Zanu-PF, in particular Mugabe, believe that the divisions within Zanu-PF can be healed by delay.

How to Solve the Impasse?
It is important to separate the Transitional Period from the Government of National Unity. If the transitional period is seen as definitely a temporary period, say lasting only 12 to 18 months, it may be easier for the two parties to come to a joint decision. Moreover, the aims and objectives of the transitional period can be circumscribed and narrow, making them more achievable and more concrete. Goals of the transitional period could be as follows:

a. Provide sufficient food for the population. Ensure that there is enough seed, fertilizer and draught power to enable farmers who have traditionally fed the nation to grow next year’s crops so that the present inability to feed ourselves is solved.

b. Repair existing infrastructure, such as roads, electricity and water.

c. Stop all criminal use of violence, including the use of political violence.

d. Stabilise the currency by stopping the printing of more money and by fiscal prudence controlled by Parliament.

These four goals can best be achieved through the appointment of technocrats rather than politicians. A task force headed by a chairperson could be appointed to carry out these tasks, with the chairperson becoming the responsible cabinet minister. Their ministries can be named as follows:

i. Ministry of Food and Agriculture, headed by an agricultural expert and selected by the farmers’ unions.

ii. Ministry of Infrastructure, headed by an engineer, selected by the engineering associations.

iii. Ministry of Security Affairs, headed by a security specialist selected by the Armed Forces.

iv. Ministry of Economic Stabilisation, headed by an economist selected by the Bankers’ Association.

If these four goals can be seen as the main goals of government during this transitional period, then there is no need for 31 Cabinet posts as envisaged by the Mbeki agreement.

Other Cabinet ministerial posts can be seen as caretaker positions, with the Cabinet tasked to stop the rot rather than to go into new policy and strategy areas, and could be as follows:

v. Ministry of Education, comprising primary, secondary and tertiary education; science and technology; culture and sports. To be selected by MDC-M (Arthur Mutambara).

vi. Ministry of Health, including child welfare. To be selected by Zanu-PF.

vii. Public Service, Labour and Social Welfare. To be selected by MDC-T.

viii. Youth, Women’s Affairs and Small Enterprises. To be selected by Zanu-PF.

ix. Local Government. To be selected by Chiefs.

x. Foreign Affairs. To have two joint ministers, one selected by MDC-T and the other by Zanu-PF.

xi. Information. To have two joint ministers, one selected by MDC-T and the other by Zanu-PF.

This will give a Cabinet of 16 members: the prime minister, two deputy prime ministers and 13 ministers.

Under each Cabinet minister, there will be a number of ministers of state and deputy ministers, representing the different parties, as follows:

Total: 13 Cabinet ministers (five Non-Partisan; three MDC-T ; four Zanu-PF ; one MDC-M)

Ten ministers of State (four MDC-T; four Zanu-PF ; two MDC-M)

Eight deputy ministers (four MDC-T; three Zanu-PF ; one MDC-M)

Total ministers and deputy ministers: 31

Breakdown of ministers by Partisanship:

Five Non-Partisan (16%);

Eleven MDC-T (36%)

Eleven Zanu-PF (36%)

Four MDC-M (13%).

Oversight by Parliament
In order to ensure a more professionally sound and democratic process for the selection of Cabinet members, as well as ministers of state and deputy ministers, they should be vetted and confirmed by a Parliamentary and Senate Committee.

The short-term nature and limited powers of the Transitional Government will leave some areas not covered, for example that of longer term planning. This can be done by appointing small Task Forces responsible to Parliament for developing medium and long-term plans.

Fay Chung is a former Zimbabwean education minister