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Business | Economy

SA is not in a recession, says Manuel

JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA Feb 26 2009 07:59
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South Africa is not in a recession despite some economists saying so, Finance Minister Trevor Manuel said on Thursday.

"No, we're not," Manuel said in an interview with South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC) radio.

"I know that a number of economists that you speak to, say, 'We think that the third quarter might be revised downwards' -- but the third quarter hasn't been revised downwards. Technically, we're not in a recession."

He said he realised there was "an argument that if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it probably is a duck, it probably is a recession, but in technical terms, we're not in a recession".

"We're not in recession yet, that's a very important point, we're not in a recession as we speak," said Manuel.

Manuel, at the start of the interview, jokingly referred to himself as "number four".

The African National Congress released its national election list on Wednesday and Manuel was its number four candidate.

"Call me Number Four," he told radio host Tim Modise.

"Number Four, are you ready for us," replied Modise, before heading into a number of questions.

CONTINUES BELOW


Zimbabwe reconstruction
Meanwhile, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) is considering the investment of $2-billion into Zimbabwe's reconstruction, Manuel said.

This was much less than the $5-billion that Zimbabwean Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai said was needed to reconstruct the crisis-torn country.

"I was present when Prime Minister Tsvangirai gave the number, but it was just a number given," Manuel told SABC.

"There's a document ... that actually splits the immediate costs over the next 10 months into two amounts of about $1-billion each."

This included a $1-billion loan to "restimulate retail and all kinds of things ... that's one billion we are exploring", said Manuel.

"The other [is] about $1-billion for emergencies in education, health, municipal services and some infrastructure."

The latter amount would include funds for water sanitation.

"It will be necessary to try to get as much support as possible to prevent this horrible, horrible, horrible scourge of cholera that Zimbabwe has lived through over these past few months," said Manuel, referring to the epidemic that has killed more than 3 800 people and infected 83 000.

Zimbabwe also has the world's highest inflation rate and is grappling with severe food shortages.

Manuel said the SADC ministers also discussed the effects of the global finance crisis on the region with the African Development Bank.

"We are a number of commodity exporters and I think that the impact is pretty severe and we were able to work through that and we will prepare a more detailed report for a meeting of African finance ministers on March 10 and 11 to be held in Tanzania," said Manuel. -- Sapa
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It's quite interesting that Minister Manuel recons that this country is not in a recession. Yet in the M&G article -> Economist: SA is in a recession - "We have been hit by the global situation and anyone who thinks we are not in a recession is wrong. We are in one now," said economist Mike Schussler, it suggests exactly the opposite.

I get the idea that nobody really knows, or, are they are trying to hide facts from the public? Let's wait and see who knows their business, Mike or Trevor.


Yeah right on February 26, 2009, 10:15 am
Whilst we appreciate so much the spirit of solidarity extended to the people of Zimbabwe in the form of a significant aid package, I would like to appeal to you the African leaders to closely watch and deter careless moves by Mugabe as he tries to kill our young (GNU)which many have paid for so dearly.God has raised you at the right moment to come to our rescue. Therefore do not neglect or stand aloof, but rise up! speak, rebuke sharply and even act accordingly as a tool in the creator's hand to obtain yourself a good name. Let history always remember you for good work not failures.

I respect mr Mugabe like many of you as war liberation hero, but believe me the man is full of pride, spite and arrogance which his supporters erroneously regard as PATRIOTISM.
Musa M on February 26, 2009, 11:49 am
Technically a country is in recession if there is negative real growth for 2 consecutive quarters.

So no. We are not in a recession.

Besides how bad do you think it would be for South Africa if a Finance minister just called it a recession before it is official?

Monty Swanepoel on February 26, 2009, 12:02 pm
its all semantics anyway, fiddle with the figures, jipo the system, leave some stuff out. And magic no recession. The fact of the matter, is technically were not in a recession but wait one more quarter and we will be.
brigitta stone on February 26, 2009, 12:42 pm
Just as everywhere else on this globe, with worldwide communication greedily spreading especially negative vibes, I get the impression that between the media, certain so-called economical experts, speculators, and a number of politicians are all thriving on telling us the allegedly bad news of a recession (great depression as a worst-case scenario) making us all wallow in self-pity before it actually hits us. If it does at all. Thanks for a vote of confidence, Mr. Manuel.
Sigrid H. Oliveto
Sigrid Oliveto on February 26, 2009, 6:38 pm
Recession or not "technically" is not really the point. The whole world is in financial turmoil and it would be foolish to believe that South Africa can or did escape this crisis.
What is more important is that if the "writing is on the wall" do not ignore it and act accordingly to minimize the impact. In other words take some of the medicine earlier rather than later.
Anthony Wijtenburg on February 26, 2009, 6:42 pm
Recession or not "technically" is not the point. The whole world is in financial turmoil and it would be dangerous for anybody in South Africa to assume that they can avoid being impacted.
What needs to be done is - see the crisis for what it is and take steps to minimize the impact on the economy. In other words take the medicine sooner rather than later. By making politically expedient speeches does not resolve the crisis.
Anthony Wijtenburg on February 26, 2009, 7:29 pm
South Africa not in recession? Like we were immune from the credit crunch? Our banks are sound? Our banks are only more sound than those of the US and UK because they rip the public off. We, the public have kept them liquid. We are now talking about bailing out the motor industry. We are definately going into recession. We are close on the heels on all the other countries already in one. The difference between us and the west is their media tell it as it is while ours relay what our government say.
Tiger Lily on February 26, 2009, 8:28 pm
It is very strange that Trevor Manuel and the rest of his cabinet seem to alwalys be ready to aid out Zimbabwe..I dont hear him saying that R1bn will be used to improve the poor schooling system or that the money wil be used to help out the poor. Why is it that they are so ready to help out another country when ours is in need of those financial resources. Mr.Manuel will you ever get your prioritise straight?
Zama Nzimande on February 27, 2009, 10:59 pm
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