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Opinion | Comment & Analysis

The power of the poor

WILLIAM GUMEDE: COMMENT - Apr 25 2009 06:00
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Jacob Zuma and the ANC ran a brilliant campaign that successfully framed the 2009 election as a face-off between well-off blacks and whites on the one hand and the poor black majority on the other -- rather than on an examination of the government's record in power.

Zuma was voted in by the majority of poor black South Africans, for whom little has changed since 1994. To win elections in South Africa the support of the black poor and working class in townships, rural areas and informal settlements, more than 60% of the population, is crucial.

Zuma successfully portrayed himself as "poor", identifying his personal marginalisation by former president Thabo Mbeki with the marginalisation of the poverty-stricken masses. He successfully distanced himself from the failures of the ANC government in the minds of poor voters, blaming them on Mbeki.

Throughout the election campaign, his strategists portrayed his camp, which now dominates the ANC, as an almost different party. They projected Zuma and the new leadership as more pro-poor and democratic -- and paradoxically less corrupt -- suggesting they will offer effective government.

Zuma tapped into a dramatic change in the mood of South Africa's poor black majority. Forgotten by the elite, they have run out of patience and are now demanding the economic dividends of democratic rule.

Some poorer South Africans blame democracy itself for their marginalisation, rather than government incompetence, leadership indifference and public corruption. For many, the 16 formidable charges Zuma sidestepped were "manufactured" by Mbeki and rich blacks and whites who oppose a poor "peasant" from Inkandla in rural KwaZulu-Natal.

Zuma successfully portrayed the abuse of democratic institutions by the Mbeki administration -- of which he was a member until 2005 -- as an attempt to exclude a downtrodden peasant and champion of the poor from the presidency and a manifestation of the marginalisation of the dispossessed under democracy.

Ominously, such framing creates a climate for political leaders to batter democratic institutions without risking much opposition from ordinary citizens. In their campaign against Zuma's corruption charges, the new ANC leadership closed down the Scorpions without consulting Parliament, which should have decided the issue, while repeatedly attacking critical media and judges who ruled against him.

Last week Zuma said the country's highest court, the Constitutional Court, is "not God". His supporters have launched a drive to purge Zuma critics in the ANC, government and state-owned companies. These are labelled as "coping" -- serving the Congress of the People.

CONTINUES BELOW


He and some of his supporters also subtly played the ethnic card, encouraging Zulu-speakers to support him and claiming that Afrikaners are the "only real white South Africans". Such statements can only heighten ethnic divisions.

He has made many promises of policy and institutional reform, while providing little detail, no delivery timetable and no information on what programmes will cost. Cosatu, his ally, has failed to peg its support for him on delivery targets and clear time frames.

South Africa is about to face the full brunt of the global financial crisis, with rising job losses across the economy. Yet neither the ANC nor the opposition parties have proposed clear remedies with time frames.

Cope was unable to counter the ANC's message that it forms part of a rich black and white cabal which opposes the interests of the poor. It and the DA focused their campaigns on Zuma's compromised morals and attacks on democratic institutions.

This may have resonated in the black and white middle classes, but it fell on stony ground among those living in shacks, without jobs or food, who cling to Zuma's promises of free healthcare, education and social grants.

One thing is clear: the glue that binds the different factions within the ANC family is not consensus over policies, the direction of the country or ideology, but getting Zuma elected president.

To capture the top office, he has assembled a disparate coalition by promising every group what it wants to hear. Often the pledges are contradictory and some of his supporters are heading for disappointment.

Dashed expectations and infighting in the coalition over how to address South Africa's urgent problems under a Zuma presidency may trigger another split in the ANC.

And he is unlikely to have the honey­moon period enjoyed by past ANC governments. If he fails to deliver the poor will also turn against him.

His initial response to these pressures is not encouraging. Not yet formally in power, he has copied many vices of the Mbeki era from which he has distanced himself.

To prove his detractors wrong, he must use the best talents of all South Africans from all race groups, whether they are critical of him, rather than rewarding incompetent cronies, dodgy financial backers or those from the same ethnic group.

He must do more than talk about defending the Constitution, and democratic institutions and values, but reflect such commitments in his behaviour.

As Zuma assumes the presidency, he would do well to heed the warning of ANC veteran Mac Maharaj: "It is actions that are going to inspire confidence."

William Gumede is author of Thabo Mbeki and the Battle for the Soul of the ANC
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Comments

I would like to express my sincere concern to our new President who will reap what he has sown so freely.
He will need it from everyone after 9th May.
Who would want his life of meeting all his promises and the repercussions.
The poor majority are not submissive - they are desperate and will take desperate measures. I, for one, will not condemn their actions.
President Zuma and the ANC have created a Frankenstein Monster, who are justifiably tired of "undelivered promises."
old, paleface, female Matthews on April 25, 2009, 7:59 am
Zuma is the solution for the poor people in the rural area and i do think he will deliver. but if ANC fail it will still dominate in rural areas because change for many people is not good.
Rialivhuwa Troton on April 25, 2009, 8:50 pm
It will be interesting to see how the majority of South Africa's electorate will vote if Zuma doesn't deliver on his promises. Let down by an elitist ANC under Mbeki, and then by a grassroots ANC under Zuma.

I believe they will be let down. We will all be let down. The new ANC dispensation seems not to have the vaguest idea that the policies they advocate at the top are ignored or manipulated from the middle management structures downward. A sad story of greed, apathy and fear.

Please oh please can we find a decent opposition that is keen to tell the electorate about their own policies - and not everyone else's.
Simon Hartley on April 25, 2009, 10:02 pm
Excellent article and summation of our current situation. What I am hoping that in the event of Zuma not living up to his promises, which is likely, COPE and the DA can give their areas good service delivery and move our vote away from race.
chris on April 25, 2009, 11:52 pm
Education and all that: what is it for; for me, for you or for all?

The constituency of the poor is the only one that counts in SA. Strange how the educated moneyed class cannot see this. See the question above.

Until they do SA is in trouble, but better in the hands of even a Zuma than try for white Die Pee or failed missionaries who cannot cope----which are one and the same really.

The the media generally in the hands of the latter polyglot greed is failing SA by not getting it. It is in the trickle down mentality, which is simply excruciatingly obviously another way of saying Me First.
My fond hope is that the Mail and Guardian is well poised. My recognition is that it has not seen the way. It should get rid of The Guardian connection.
James Edwards on April 26, 2009, 3:09 am
Excellent excellent excellent article. Thank you!
Laura L on April 26, 2009, 9:47 am
"William Gumede is author of Thabo Mbeki and the Battle for the Soul of the ANC"

I just needed to check.

Now I understand your commentry, CLEARLY.
Siphiwo Siphiwo, service delivery now on April 26, 2009, 11:27 am
I wonder what other choices black South Africans have to vote for.

1.DA? A party that stems from the apartheid era - fought the good fight against apartheid while benefiting from the rewards? They've taken the place of the 1994 National Party in the Western Cape, appealing to the same coloured vote and white vote.
2.COPE? Whose roots are firmly planted in Mbeki's pro-business, bugger the poor government style?
3.ID? Patricia de Lille will get into bed with the DA who she claims still has a "baasskap" mentality?

To say that the ANC have not delivered any promises is ridiculous and totally takes away credibility from this article.

How many black people received a pension or grant, RDP house, running water, electricity, etc. pre-1994? How many white people received higher old age pensions than non-whites?

If opposition parties want to get in bed with the DA, just to oppose the ANC, then the ANC surely will rule till Jesus comes.
Abigail Abrahams on April 26, 2009, 6:20 pm
Talking about the power of the poor, the first challenge for Zuma is to keep the swine flu virus out of the shores of South Africa. With millions of poor AIDS patients with their immunosuppressed condition are highly vulnerable to the fatal consequences of this flu virus which has killed over 80 infected persons. Zuma needs to restrict travel, quarantine persons traveling from the affected areas and ensure a stockpile of treatment to treat at least a million South Africans if things get out of hand. The Zulu Zuma era is about to begin and I hope it is a good one for the masses of ZA/South Africa who have shown full confidence in his leadership.
Ethicist#1 Fairplay on April 26, 2009, 7:40 pm
Today is Freedom from Electricity Day in Westdene, to usher in the new era of Zuma non-delivery
Peter Horn on April 27, 2009, 7:17 am
I hope you are not deliberately insulting the intelligence of the poor people. Most people I spoke to, who are poor and uneducated showed clearly to me that they are more clever than perceived by the political analysts. And they did not necessarily vote with their stomachs.

I also know a lot of the so called elite who worked hard to make sure that the ANC wins these elections.

One thing I agree with you on, is that the ANC has to deliver this time round. I also believe that the ANC is in a better position to do just that. These are desperate times and it is a do or die situation for the ANC. This is good enough to propel any organisation into high gear and deliver.

In my opinion South Africa has reached a cross road. We must decide now if we want to help rebuild this country, or help destroy it.
I hope the majority will choose to help rebuild the country and few will do what they do best, destroy.

To the ANC, South Africa needs improved racial relations more now than ever. I urge Mr Zuma to continue charming the minorities and make them feel at home.
South Africa needs peace, jobs, and better life for all.
The era of arrogance and infighting is over. The majority I have spoken to agree that this is your last chance. Please use this chance wisely.

Mziwonke Mqhayi on April 27, 2009, 12:25 pm
It is known that the vast majority of people who casted their votes in favour of the ANC are the poor, and the vast majority rural poor. It is now up to the ruling party to take the electorate serious and deliver on basic services. We surely do not expect service delivery protests this time around. The heart of service delivery is within the local government and the new administration should really keep a watchful eye on that level of government. The NEC should consider the speech of Trevor Manuel seriously. Municipal Officers are spending a lot of money that can be utilised for service delivery undertaking trips overseas that are not meant at sharpening their skills or leaning best practices. There should be strict control of Municipal Officers undertaking overseas travel. The new Minister of Local Government should really shape this level of Government up.It is very much worrying to note events in North-West where the municipality spend a lot of money on sporting at the expense of basic services.

Municipalities are spending a lot of money on Private Law firms either on disciplinary processes or drafting of by-laws. The Office of the Chief State Law Adviser is available to render these services for free to all municiplities.

Weak municipal administration will surely affect the implementation of manifesto of the ANC.

Modise J Molekoa, Lephalale
Modise Molekoa on April 27, 2009, 2:08 pm
Election time is about the only time that the poor have some power ... with their vote.

The rest of the time they stay where they are ... poor.

A politician once made a statement - "The poor will always be with us".
Les Wil on April 27, 2009, 2:43 pm
If the poor are so intelligent, why do they vote for a chameleon. The colors and blame will just keep changing. The Action will be nothing more than a lot of erratic directionless progress. *Sigh* I long for a day of position through merit. This is unfortunately what the poor can relate to the most, lack of achievement. Which is what becoming president in South Africa now equates to, a moral void. I will personally kiss zuma's feet if he delivers. Or even if his blinkered cultists and the ANC hold him to task for non delivery.
cyber dog on April 27, 2009, 5:50 pm
Unfortunately, 2009 may turn out to be the year you wished you had LOST the elections. Both Obama and Zuma may discover that the economy won't let them fulfil ANY of their campaign promises. A tough five years lies ahead, and the temptation to become autocratic in the face of unrest will test these two men severely.

Very soon Obama is likely to find out he has thrown away billions in "bailout" money - it will simply have "vanished" - most stolen by kleptocrats. And Zuma will find the golden years Mbeki wasted have ended and his coffers will be bare, his promises to all and sundry unfulfil-able.

Hey, I also hope I'm wrong!
pete ess on April 28, 2009, 9:40 pm
If we had to level the playing field (eg me write and speak in Setswana etc) and speak honestly we would accept that South African politics can not be articulated and interpreted like we would those of the UK or France the US etc. The Black populace of this country is trapped in a discussion with which they have nothing to do. The discussion is about narrow White fears and interest. The Black majority is now and again - is the word intermittently? - conveniently used to address these narrow White interests. Interestingly, the White party DA, is being benchmarked on how many Black voters it will garner to addres this agenda. Everything is set. The media, business and even some powerful institutions abroad are ready to ensure the articulation of these narrow interests. That is the only reason Zimbabwe is and will ever be in the news. If there were no White people in this country after 1994, we would have a much progressive political intercourse and dialogue. In other words, if the DA where to address South African needs, the majority of which is Black, they would suddenly sound very relevant and would cease to be seen as a White protectionist party.
As for Mervin Gumede, the differentiator cannot be his Blackness as to give credence to his obnoxious and opportunistic literature that he cannot be racist because he is Black. What about downright empty! What is he saying? Are we going to be exposed to this litany of baseless assumptions and lies simply because someone is trying to sound 'sophisticated and relevant' to the White masters who pay for his books? Till when are we going to be rubbished by those who, after benefiting from the policies of our 'corrupt and non-delivering' goverments, go on and become agents of bad mouthing the very institutions? They say we vote out of blind loyalty. What is blind loyalty? Our rejection of tacit racism and unequality? Our rejection of people who refuse to become part of our country with the constant referals to 'brain-drains', 'standards', etc? Our rejection of people who make a big noise about crime and yet reject affirmtive action and BEE? Our rejection people who look down on us, the Black majority as they refuse to participate in this democracy, except to make sure they 'Stop Zuma' or ' fight back', they refuse to speak our languages - after how long they have stayed here, they suffocate our people on the farms and rural areas?
Mervyn Gumede has to be proud of himself. Anything to pay the bills? Is that what this punditry has come to?

Sies!
Edwin Matlapeng on April 29, 2009, 1:51 pm
To Edwin Matlapeng thank you so much for your comment. Finally someone says something I can identify with. I am part of the 'poor majority' of this country and I honestly applaud you Mr. Matlapeng for your comment, please share more of your insights on some of the political posts that M&G puts on this webiste.
on May 4, 2009, 3:53 pm
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Winning ways Thousands of supporters attended the ANC’s rally at Coca-Cola Stadium last weekend. (Photograph: Paul Botes)




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