George Monbiot: Credibility depleting faster than oil

You can stick your heads back in the sand now.

Nice one, free speech.

the only alternative here it seems, is a massive intervention on the demand side of fossil fuel. a massive roll out of first hybrid to fully electric cars. it will take a heavily juiced up grid to power the nation's electric cars and trains, we need nuclear power like yesterday. for all the world's energy needs that cannot be sustained on fossil fuels, there's no realistic alternative besides nuclear power for the electric option.

unless and until our spineless politicians find the guts to act, we are doomed.

Contribution made to Parliamentary hearings on impacts of climate change: 17-18 Nov 09
1. Failing to react decisively on climate changes and peak oil

The South African Government is failing to react decisively on the twin issues, namely climate changes and peak oil, which jeopardize the future food security and well being of the Nation. Both issues, which are the two sides of the same coin, should inform us to steer the country out of fossil fuel (FF) towards a low carbon development.

These are compounded by the SA dangerous dependency (95%) and addiction on coal for its electricity generation as well as by the coal horrendous impact on water and air quality.

In short, we are deep in a grove going straight to a cliff.

2. Lack of alternatives ready

The Government did missed the opportunity to plan and invest in the required mix energy sources when it was clear, years ago that Eskom will shortly run out of steam

End of 2009, very little has been done and the country is in a corner with looming electricity blackout, deadly tariff increases and no ready alternatives. The Government is failing the country.

It is therefore our concerted opinion that if it does not rapidly get its acts together (by f.e ending Eskom monopoly, commit to at least 20% Green House Gases decrease by 2020 and related RE energy planning coverage), it will put the Nation at risk and most probably will have no other alternatives than playing fire fighters in a burning SA.

3. Implementation problem

The Government had decided on a 30% share of energy production by the IPP. The 2c/kWh levy is not being used for supporting IPP nor renewables. It had also accepted a 4% RE energy coverage as well as the Long term Mitigation Scenario (LTMS)’s recommendations for the rapid planning and development of Renewable Energy (RE) sources. The RE Feed In Tariff, which is supposed to define and facilitate the IPP involvement in RE is still obstructed by many hurdles, most probably due to Eskom monopoly. It appears that, as in other sectors the Government has difficulties to focus and implement due to other priorities

4. Civil society buys in problem

A large majority of the civil society is disconnected from Nature, hence it has lost interest and capacity to speak out for its protection. This is considered to be a major problem as the civil society should question the status quo, initiate the changes and change it self.

It is also the responsibility of the government to inform and build resilience of the South African society for the coming low carbon situation as well as for the climate changes impacts.

The “International Energy Agency” has just been found deliberately upgrading its estimate of the world's oil supplies in order not to frighten the markets”. The oil supply crunch could happen sooner than expected and we would be as prepared as babies in nappies left crying under the rain. Food security will also be a huge problem because we do use 10 calories of oil to produce one calorie of food!

As Mr George Monbiot mentioned recently in the Guardian news: “the challenge of feeding seven or eight billion people while oil supplies are falling is stupefying”.

5. A new development paradigms based on low carbon

Dear Mrs and Mr members of parliament, we urge you to see further than the Fossil Fuel box. To envision a low carbon development, which dismisses at once false solutions such as Carbone offsetting, capture and storage, synfuel…. The latter have been created just to maintain FF business as usual. Moreover, these are giving the wrong message that everything is fine and nobody has to change a iota in the way he is living. This is wrong.

We urge you to define a goal, which is ambitious enough to steer us out of the cliff and clear enough to initiate the necessary changes in the civil society. Hence phasing out

We urge you to consider what is necessary in a low carbon development namely a local development, for local people with local resources. Hence phasing out export driven development.

Besides being necessary for the planet’ rescue and for our low carbon preparedness, this new development paradigms would open tremendous new opportunities for employments and for a better life in South Africa.

With regard to this, we challenge the Minister of water and environmental affairs to produce reports on which she found her statement that “reducing GHG production now would jeopardise SA fight against poverty”? Many studies have proven the contrary. Businesses related to low carbon and renewables have already overtaken FF businesses in a growing number of countries.

It is only then that we can start planning for the fossil fuel phasing out and its replacement by renewables.

Isn’ it Mrs and Mr members of the Parliament that the long term well being of the majority should supersede the short term interest of a few ?

Do you, Mrs and Mr members of the Parliament think that it is responsible to further delay initiating the appropriate changes ?

6. A new dream

I would like to end by quoting John Hopkins who said ”all you have to do is to change the dream, and everything else will change along with it. We need to change to an Earth – honouring dream to survive on earth”.

Government intervention is doomed to fail. They have never managed to successfully stimulate anything other than the production of problems.

The markets on the other hand, happen to respond fairly well.

What are we going to see? A steady rise in the price of oil, which will trigger both demand reduction and investment in alternative energy sources.

Unfortunately, since oil demand is fairly inelastic, we're going to see a another spike before demand reduction kicks, but this spike should be of shorter duration because people have been conditioned by the last one to react faster.

Alternative energy sources will begin to come on-stream as the price of oil rises, because at the moment, they're economically unviable without massive subsidies.

Scary, but inevitable.
Don’t expect this government to get a grip on this. (That would be laughable)
Do the smart & the right things, plan long term.
Support non oil-sourced products and technology.
Prepare and save for the time when everything becomes hugely more expensive.
Make others aware that time is running out. When we all take this seriously and don’t let up, we’ll improve the chances that more is done before TSHTF.
Buy ESKOM.
(OK, they are presently totally un-green, but we’ll always need oil-even if it is coal based. Coal we have at least enough for the mean time. And perhaps eventually ESKOM too will make carbon based products like oils and petrol from vegetation. The type of technology is there already.)

That was a ridiculous typo here above. 'Meant to write buy SASOL –not ESKOM of course.
(Kicking himself he decided to ban himself for a few days)