What would a satirical news show be without a satirical polling agency? That’s what my colleagues and I asked Thierry Cassuto, co-creator of ZA News, when we pitched him our polling service, Urtak.com.
The ZA News community took to our technology with enthusiasm, and today they have asked over 500 questions and contributed more than 200 000 responses. As the answers streamed in and the amount of data gathered surpassed anything a traditional public opinion firm could ever deliver, we realised that we had more than a mere diversion on our hands. The massive amount of information and the humorous edge of the ZA News Urtak survey shows how new technology can provide a fascinating window on to South African opinion.
At Urtak, we believe that a poll or survey is only as good as the pollster conducting it. It is for this reason that politicians lose elections in spite of hiring high-priced consultants or that companies adopt launch disastrous marketing strategies even though they had access to the best research. Not even the most knowledgeable experts can be sure they’re asking the right questions. The collaborative approach embodied in the survey, where every participant can add their own questions, is an attempt to remedy this problem. If everyone becomes a pollster, then we have a far greater chance of asking the questions that matter.
It is no secret that the ZA News viewers — and therefore the participants of the ZA News Urtak survey — are certainly not representative of the nation. How could any group that is 25% female, 83% white, and in which three times more respondents know the words to Bok van Blerk’s De La Rey than Umshini Wami be so? However, constructing a representative sample in South Africa, with its 11 official languages, diverse ethnic backgrounds, and massive economic inequality, is a Herculean labour. Even the most rigorous traditional research firm still must weight their raw results to produce the desired proportions — a process that always involves guesswork.
Who are the participants in the ZA News survey, and what do they think? We can easily find answers to standard demographic questions: 98% are over the age of 18, 81% live in cities, 80% are employed, and 5% are gay. Likewise, it is quite clear that their political views tend to diverge from the mass of their compatriots. In the April elections, the African National Congress won 66% of the vote, followed by the Democratic Alliance with 17%, and the Congress of the People with 7%. In the ZA News sample, the overwhelming winner is the DA, posting an impressive 63%. Cope would come second at 11%, and the ANC lags behind at a mere 9%.
Turning over the question asking to the community, especially when the audience is looking for a laugh, can produce unexpected outcomes. For instance, we learn that 21% would buy a karaoke DVD by President Jacob Zuma. A strong majority think that Wonderbras should be given to the Proteas as gifts, so they know what it feels like to hold cups to their chests. A macho 18% claims to flex their muscles every time they catch themselves in the mirror. And more than two-thirds believe DA leader Helen Zille made a serious omission in selecting the members of the Western Cape Cabinet — Evita Bezuidenhout.
The survey benefits from another layer of insights — all results can be cross tabulated, meaning that it is possible to see how a response to one question affects a response to another. For example, the question was asked, ”Is it OK to make fun of Nelson Mandela?” Fortunately for ZA News (which features the greatest South African in almost every episode), 72% say yes. Among the show’s black viewers, however, only 49% agree, suggesting a different sensibility.
While few would contest the fact that white and black South Africans often have widely differing views on national affairs, cross tabulating results can give concrete examples. In the survey, racial difference is notably expressed in a more pessimistic view of the direction of the nation. The participants who belong to the South Africa’s white minority are more likely to be disappointed with the new South Africa, more likely to believe the country is following Zimbabwe’s path, and are more likely to believe the country is in a general state of decline.
But the results of the survey also bring cause for optimism. A well-known fact — confirmed once again — is that South Africans from all backgrounds are nearly unanimous in declaring their love for their country. And in this sample, many characteristics, besides race, are good predictors of differing worldviews and disagreement, such as those that divide the partisans of Mac from the defenders of PC. Of this fact ANC Youth League president Julius Malema should take note — Apple users are more likely to think he will be South Africa’s next president.
All figures are as of November 19 2009.
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