Ahead of a summit of regional leaders later this month, South African President Jacob Zuma is pushing to secure an agreement in Zimbabwe for fresh elections in 2011.
And there is already much to suggest a new election campaign is on the cards, as the leaders of Zimbabwe’s two main parties step up the rhetoric and hit the campaign trail.
This week Mac Maharaj, part of Zuma’s task team on Zimbabwe, began a second visit to the country in as many weeks, a sign that Zuma is looking to step up the pressure.
Maharaj confirmed to the Mail & Guardian he was holding meetings in Harare, but declined further comment. He met leaders of the two MDC factions, Morgan Tsvangirai and Arthur Mutambara, on Tuesday.
Zuma wants to go to the SADC summit in Windhoek, in just over a week’s time, with “at least some kind of timetable” for elections, one Zimbabwean government official said.
With the region’s patience with Zimbabwe’s endless feuding near-exhausted many are anxious to see an election that produces an undisputed result.
“Zuma wants to go into the SADC [summit] having made real progress towards setting an election timetable. Zanu-PF and the MDC agree that’s the only way — the question is whether it’s possible in a year,” a government official said.
A SADC diplomat in Harare said that while the MDC might win any free election leaders doubt that Tsvangirai has gathered enough influence and authority during his time in government to win the backing of security forces and ensure stability should he win.
The coalition government has brought in some reforms. Three new commissions — to run elections and to monitor human rights and the media, with new newspapers being licensed — are steps towards a fresh poll. But the road to free elections remains a long one.
Deputy Prime Minister Mutambara said holding an election before comprehensive reforms will only produce another contested outcome and a further stalemate.
“[What is] key is the quality of elections — not when they’re held,” said Mutambara, who met members of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) last week. “There’s no point in rushing into elections that will be challenged.”
ZEC member Bessie Nhandara says the commission needs at least a year to clean up the voters’ roll.
A report by a rights group found 70Â 000 registered voters aged well over 100.
Reports of intimidation against teams running a constitutional reform exercise show that the culture of violence that has plagued past election campaigns is still present.
An interparty committee designed to encourage healing and reconciliation has never really got off the ground and many in the countryside remain traumatised by the violence of 2008, when the MDC says hundreds of its supporters were killed and thousands more were displaced.
Mutambara appears to be the only member of the coalition not readying himself for an election.
Apart from stepping up his standard anti-West rhetoric, Mugabe has gone to unusual lengths, risking ridicule by appearing in the ankle-length white robes of an apostolic sect that has traditionally supported him.
Tsvangirai has launched a series of rallies, telling supporters that real change will happen only if his party secures a full electoral mandate.
“We cannot continue to have this mule-powered government, as it is not doing much,” he told a rally at the weekend.
Tsvangirai said the SADC intends sending a team to Zimbabwe within two weeks to discuss ways of ending disputes over senior appointments.