South Africa will face rolling blackouts from 2011 until 2016 — like those seen in 2008 — if drastic action is not taken to introduce independent power producers and rapidly increase energy efficiency.
This emerged with the release of an executive summary of the draft integrated resources plan (IRP2010) by the department of energy on Thursday. The full draft IRP2010, which maps South Africa’s electricity future, will be released on Friday for public comment, with the aim of promulgating the document by the end of the year.
With the IRP2010 the department has published a medium-term risk mitigation plan (MTRMP) aimed at addressing the shortfall in electricity expected between 2011 and 2016.
The IRP2 is a long-term plan and will not address the coming shortfalls in electricity in the near future.
“From 2011 to 2016 rolling blackouts are anticipated unless extraordinary steps are taken to accelerate the realisation of the non-Eskom generation and energy-efficiency projects,” it said.
It said that Eskom’s current fleet would be hard-pressed to sustain required performance levels, as there was not enough time to perform adequate maintenance and improve the quality of coal being supplied to a number of its power stations.
The development of the draft IRP2010 considered a number of scenarios to map out the future of the energy landscape and a number of the scenarios factored in delays in commissioning Medupi, as well as a possible cancellation of Kusile.
The IRP2010 was aimed at balancing the “cost of electricity production” with the “limiting of carbon emissions”, said a statement from the inter-ministerial committee on energy.
Of the 17 scenarios considered, two — the balanced scenario and the revised balanced scenario — which came out of discussions in the department and workshops with the inter-departmental task team, presented the best case to meet the key priorities.
“The balanced scenarios represent the best trade-off between least-cost investment, climate-change mitigation, diversity of supply, localisation of, and regional development,” it said in the draft IRP.
The balanced scenario included committed energy projects under the previous IRP and some additional renewable energy.
Under the balanced scenario the future electricity energy mix by 2030 would comprise coal at 48% of baseload power. Nuclear energy would make up 14% of baseload power — up from 6,5% at present. A further 2% of baseload power would come from imported hydropower.
About 5% of mid-merit power would be supplied by gas, while peaking power would come from open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) supplying 9% and pump storage 5%.
The inclusion of OCGTs has been controversial given the high cost of running this plant which runs on diesel fuel to supply power when demand is at its highest.
Renewable technologies
About 16% has been set aside for power from dispatchable renewable technologies.
A large emphasis on energy efficiency is also factored into the plan.
The draft document notes that the balanced scenario provides for a 30% reduction in carbon emissions, while only requiring an extra 8% in funding compared with the least-cost scenario. Weighed against a low carbon scenario, which will require an additional R790-billion, the balanced scenario could be significantly cheaper.
However, the finalisation of the IRP2010 will come against the backdrop of intense work in the medium term to save power and keep the lights on.
The likely delays in the commissioning of Medupi and Kusile power stations because of uncertainty around funding will exacerbate the threatened shortages.
The mitigation plan noted that, while opportunities to reduce the shortfall in power supply exist, they are constrained by the lack of financial incentives, regulatory instruments, bureaucratic red tape and enabling policy.
A project team has been established to assess options to alleviate the immediate shortage in supply.
Some of the realisable risk mitigation solutions identified include the speedy introduction of available renewable projects at 320 gigawatt hours (GWh), co-generation and own-generation projects by large power users, of 7Â 330GWh and 22Â 500GWh respectively, as well as the introduction of independent power producers, who could bring 14Â 000GWh online.
It also highlighted the need for energy efficiency projects and energy-efficiency technologies to create savings of 7000GWh and 12Â 000GWh respectively.
This would require “extraordinary action in the main by the government, Eskom, business and large metropolitan councils”.