The giddy prospect of a third revolution in the Arab world, with Libya swiftly following Tunisia and Egypt into a brave new democratic era, is fading from view.
The growing military and diplomatic deadlock, inside and outside the country, suggest efforts to topple Muammar Gaddafi could fail, at least in the short term. His survival may, in turn, mark the beginning of the end of the Arab world revolt.
In spite of aerial bombing and ground skirmishes, fighting between pro-Gaddafi forces and opposition groups remains sporadic and undirected. Since the rebels seized control of Benghazi, most of eastern Libya and towns closer to Tripoli, their uncoordinated advance has stalled. Talk of a grand march on the capital remains just that — talk.
Gaddafi is strengthening his grip on Tripoli, partly by terrorising its citizens. But his efforts to retake opposition-held towns, notably Brega, have also been inconclusive. Regime air attacks appear half-hearted and largely inaccurate.
The military standoff is matched by paralysis over military intervention. The Americans are extremely hesitant, with Defence Secretary Robert Gates repeatedly highlighting the risks of a no-fly zone. Gates says that to create such a zone the United States and its allies would first have to destroy Gaddafi’s air force and air defences. These are formidable, posing, on paper at least, a far greater challenge than that presented by Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq, or the Serbian military in Bosnia, two recent cases in which no-fly zones were imposed.
There’s a diplomatic deadlock, too. US President Barack Obama has urged Gaddafi to stand down, but has offered no clue about whether he has a plan to force him out, or indeed any plan at all. Having condemned Gaddafi, imposed largely symbolic sanctions and agreed how awful the situation is, the United Nations Security Council and the European Union have become spectators.
Likewise, the Arab League and African Union issue statements but, in effect do nothing. International impotence and division in the face of fast-moving political crises are nothing new. But there is no reason why the international community, including emerging powers such as China, India and Brazil, should not do more to help the Arabs help themselves.
The proper channel for such engagement is via the Arab League. Protesters in Bahrain, Algeria, Yemen, Oman and elsewhere must be watching Libya’s internal impasse and the disjointed international response with dismay. The longer Gaddafi hangs on, the faster momentum behind the revolt across the rest of the Arab world may be lost. — Guardian News & Media 2011